Friday, August 18, 2017

Models Are Looking for More Postives In The General Market Over The Next 2 Weeks.

For the positives - leading the pack is the inverse ETF for Natty.  While the rest of the positives are looking for continued new highs in the gneral market.
For the negatives - it's mostly covered by ETFs looking for the VIX to drop.
Sym Scale
4-0
Positive
DGAZ 3.09
UPRO 3.03
MIDU 3.02
URTY 3
TQQQ 2.97
SPXL 2.96
TNA 2.95
MVV 2.9
UDOW 2.86
DTO 2.85
Negative
UVXY 0.52
TVIX 0.53
SQQQ 0.62
SPXS 0.64
SPXU 0.65
VIXY 0.65
SDS 0.85
FAZ 0.88
SOXS 0.92
SDOW 0.93

Last Week's Calls So Far...

On average last week's call for next week are looking good.
Sym Scale
4-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
BRZU 3.15 5.22%
MIDU 2.84 -0.26%
TQQQ 2.82 1.32%
UWM 2.82 -0.38%
TNA 2.79 -0.62%
UPRO 2.73 0.85%
CEFL 2.7 0.92%
URTY 2.66 -0.82%
MVV 2.64 -0.06%
SSO 2.58 0.63%

Average 0.68%



Negative
TVIZ 0.5 -9.76%
TVIX 0.81 -17.53%
SQQQ 0.85 -1.55%
UVXY 0.85 -17.61%
BOIL 0.93 -2.59%
SOXS 0.93 -5.67%
VIXM 0.95 -4.62%
SKF 0.98 -1.52%
SPXS 0.99 -1.03%
TECS 1 -3.25%

Average -6.51%


2 Weeks Ago

But the call from 2 weeks ago were just horrible.

Sym Scale
4-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
DTO 3.16 5.62%
SOXL 2.99 0.02%
CEFL 2.84 -5.02%
TECL 2.78 -0.62%
TMF 2.76 2.58%
TQQQ 2.76 -2.00%
BRZU 2.7 -0.12%
MIDU 2.69 -6.26%
ROM 2.67 -0.38%
DRN 2.65 -3.68%

Average -0.99%



Negative
TVIZ 0.59 9.36%
TVIX 0.6 21.35%
UVXY 0.6 21.69%
VIXY 0.66 12.62%
SOXS 0.7 -1.35%
VIXM 0.91 4.83%
DRV 0.99 3.75%
DIG 1.22 -6.77%
PSQ 1.24 0.53%
MIDZ 1.26 6.20%

Average 7.22%

Friday, August 11, 2017

Models Are Looking For A Return To Normal.

Brazil tops the list and the inverse VIXs are at the bottom.
Sym Scale
4-0
Positive
BRZU 3.15
MIDU 2.84
TQQQ 2.82
UWM 2.82
TNA 2.79
UPRO 2.73
CEFL 2.7
URTY 2.66
MVV 2.64
SSO 2.58
Negative
TVIZ 0.5
TVIX 0.81
SQQQ 0.85
UVXY 0.85
BOIL 0.93
SOXS 0.93
VIXM 0.95
SKF 0.98
SPXS 0.99
TECS 1




Last week's call for next week is (so far) horrible with only 1 correct call on both sides.
A note about $CEFL is that it issued a significant dividend this week.

Sym Scale
4-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
DTO 3.16 2.10%
SOXL 2.99 -0.78%
CEFL 2.84 -4.02%
TECL 2.78 -1.36%
TMF 2.76 1.74%
TQQQ 2.76 -1.73%
BRZU 2.7 -1.11%
MIDU 2.69 -4.57%
ROM 2.67 -1.07%
DRN 2.65 -3.95%

Average -1.48%
Negative
TVIZ 0.59 10.52%
TVIX 0.6 24.25%
UVXY 0.6 24.63%
VIXY 0.66 12.06%
SOXS 0.7 0.33%
VIXM 0.91 5.07%
DRV 0.99 4.40%
DIG 1.22 -3.43%
PSQ 1.24 0.52%
MIDZ 1.26 4.20%

Average 8.26%



The final call - this week's jump in the VIX did not help the negative calls at all.  On the positive side while the right/wrong was 50/50 the overal average  was still a positive.

Sym Scale
4-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
TMF 3.22 4.25%
DTO 3.17 1.88%
CEFL 2.93 -1.35%
SOXL 2.88 -3.41%
DDM 2.86 1.68%
UPRO 2.78 -0.58%
BRZU 2.77 7.61%
QLD 2.76 -0.74%
UDOW 2.76 2.56%
EUO 2.74 -0.75%

Average 1.12%
Negative
TVIX 0.76 10.15%
UGAZ 0.81 -9.89%
SOXS 0.93 2.80%
TVIZ 0.94 5.87%
UVXY 0.96 10.40%
DXD 1.09 -1.53%
SDOW 1.09 -2.58%
TECS 1.1 -0.62%
JNUG 1.11 -7.17%
TBT 1.12 -2.69%

Average 0.47%

Friday, August 4, 2017

Not Much Change From Last Week's Post.

 
Sym Scale
4-0
Positive
DTO 3.16
SOXL 2.99
CEFL 2.84
TECL 2.78
TMF 2.76
TQQQ 2.76
BRZU 2.7
MIDU 2.69
ROM 2.67
DRN 2.65
Negative
TVIZ 0.59
TVIX 0.6
UVXY 0.6
VIXY 0.66
SOXS 0.7
VIXM 0.91
DRV 0.99
DIG 1.22
PSQ 1.24
MIDZ 1.26

From last week = so far so good.

Sym Scale
4-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
TMF 3.22 3.42%
DTO 3.17 0.75%
CEFL 2.93 0.81%
SOXL 2.88 -2.81%
DDM 2.86 1.67%
UPRO 2.78 0.36%
BRZU 2.77 7.69%
QLD 2.76 -0.38%
UDOW 2.76 2.55%
EUO 2.74 -1.27%
Negative
TVIX 0.76 -2.17%
UGAZ 0.81 -14.68%
SOXS 0.93 2.56%
TVIZ 0.94 -1.05%
UVXY 0.96 -2.22%
DXD 1.09 -1.48%
SDOW 1.09 -2.54%
TECS 1.1 -0.45%
JNUG 1.11 -5.47%
TBT 1.12 -2.16%

 

The final outcome is not pretty. This is the results from the call 2 weeks ago.

Sym Scale
4-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
drip* 3.13 -4.60%
SOXL 2.93 -4.43%
DGAZ 2.84 8.57%
SMH 2.84 -1.41%
KRE 2.79 0.69%
TECL 2.75 0.10%
DUG 2.72 -2.96%
VNQ 2.67 0.49%
ERY 2.66 -4.84%
IYR 2.63 0.26%
Negative
TNA 1.34 -2.60%
SPXS 1.33 -0.25%
UVXY 1.32 -0.71%
UYG 1.29 1.99%
SPXU 1.21 -0.34%
GUSH 1.19 3.63%
URTY 1.16 -2.67%
JNUG 1.08 -0.03%
UBIO 0.93 -5.74%
SOXS 0.87 4.48%

Saturday, July 29, 2017

For the Next 10 Days - The Models Are in Favor of a Strong Dow.

While the model's top pick for the next 2 weeks is US Treasuries,   a majority of the top 10 picks are Dow related.  Over in the negative column,  the majority is technology related.
Sym Scale
4-0
Positive
TMF 3.22
DTO 3.17
CEFL 2.93
SOXL 2.88
DDM 2.86
UPRO 2.78
BRZU 2.77
QLD 2.76
UDOW 2.76
EUO 2.74
Negative
TVIX 0.76
UGAZ 0.81
SOXS 0.93
TVIZ 0.94
UVXY 0.96
DXD 1.09
SDOW 1.09
TECS 1.1
JNUG 1.11
TBT 1.12

 

 

 

Last Week's Call For Next Week

Last week's picks for next week are 5-5 but the average  percentage loss in the positive calls is not acceptable at -1.7% .   The negs were better at 7-3 BUT had a positive 1 % return.
Sym Scale
4-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
drip* 3.13 -10.05%
SOXL 2.93 -1.36%
DGAZ 2.84 0.50%
SMH 2.84 -0.56%
KRE 2.79 0.92%
TECL 2.75 0.47%
DUG 2.72 -3.15%
VNQ 2.67 0.45%
ERY 2.66 -4.79%
IYR 2.63 0.25%
Negative
TNA 1.34 0.64%
SPXS 1.33 -0.37%
UVXY 1.32 -1.06%
UYG 1.29 1.35%
SPXU 1.21 -0.46%
GUSH 1.19 10.06%
URTY 1.16 0.63%
JNUG 1.08 -0.80%
UBIO 0.93 -1.89%
SOXS 0.87 1.36%

 

 

 

From 2 Weeks Ago.

The final review of the call from two weeks ago isn't too bad with a 90% and 80% success.  The positives had a .4% gain and the negatives came in at -2.4%

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
EEM 2.65 0.74%
CURE 2.43 1.15%
DRIP 2.43 -5.49%
XLP 2.38 0.89%
XLU 2.34 1.88%
SOXL 2.3 0.30%
DGAZ 2.29 0.12%
EWJ 2.29 1.21%
QLD 2.29 3.01%
AGG 2.28 0.28%
Negative
SDS 0.53 -1.22%
UVXY 0.59 -13.22%
VIXY 0.6 -6.88%
GASL 0.97 3.84%
JDST 1.01 -5.75%
GUSH 1.17 3.81%
SOXS 1.25 -0.76%
TECS 1.29 -3.48%
ERX 1.3 1.87%
UGAZ 1.3 -1.58%

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Models Pick Energy As Most Probable Loser Over The Next 10 Days.

The Inverse L.ETF's  $DRIP, $DGAZ and $DUG $ERY, related to energy,  in the potential 10 day gainers.
Sym Scale
4-0
Positive
drip* 3.13
SOXL 2.93
DGAZ 2.84
SMH 2.84
KRE 2.79
TECL 2.75
DUG 2.72
VNQ 2.67
ERY 2.66
IYR 2.63
Negative
TNA 1.34
SPXS 1.33
UVXY 1.32
UYG 1.29
SPXU 1.21
GUSH 1.19
URTY 1.16
JNUG 1.08
UBIO 0.93
SOXS 0.87

Last Week's call for 10 days at 75%.

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
EEM 2.65 0.39%
CURE 2.43 1.85%
DRIP 2.43 -1.21%
XLP 2.38 0.43%
XLU 2.34 1.62%
SOXL 2.3 1.43%
DGAZ 2.29 -5.61%
EWJ 2.29 0.93%
QLD 2.29 2.44%
AGG 2.28 0.35%
Negative
SDS 0.53 -0.89%
UVXY 0.59 -10.36%
VIXY 0.6 -5.36%
GASL 0.97 0.51%
JDST 1.01 -5.02%
GUSH 1.17 0.43%
SOXS 1.25 -1.74%
TECS 1.29 -2.78%
ERX 1.3 0.33%
UGAZ 1.3 5.28%

The call from 10 Days ago at 90% for the correct direction.

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
SOXL 2.42 14.20%
TQQQ 2.38 11.09%
XLY 2.37 1.55%
EWG 2.36 1.86%
SMH 2.35 4.44%
XLP 2.34 0.42%
XLU 2.33 1.64%
EWJ 2.31 1.64%
EEM 2.3 5.32%
TLT 2.3 1.30%
Negative
UVXY 0.46 -19.98%
TVIX 0.5 -19.51%
ERX 0.68 6.08%
JDST 0.7 -11.99%
DIG 0.88 4.53%
VXX 1.1 -10.31%
VIXY 1.11 -10.52%
SQQQ 1.16 -10.14%
DUST 1.18 -10.78%
TECS 1.27 -10.19%

Monday, July 17, 2017

Models Are Batting Almost .900, Models Like Emerging Markets Over The Next 10 Days.

Looking out over the next 10 days for model's 10 best and worst L.ETFs.

The UVXY and VIXY calls in the negatives may change due to stock split.  I don't think my database was updated correctly.
Sym Scale
3-0
Positive
EEM 2.65
CURE 2.43
DRIP 2.43
XLP 2.38
XLU 2.34
SOXL 2.3
DGAZ 2.29
EWJ 2.29
QLD 2.29
AGG 2.28
Negative
SDS 0.53
UVXY 0.59
VIXY 0.6
GASL 0.97
JDST 1.01
GUSH 1.17
SOXS 1.25
TECS 1.29
ERX 1.3
UGAZ 1.3

Last week's 10 day call, so far.

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
SOXL 2.42 10.45%
TQQQ 2.38 6.66%
XLY 2.37 0.67%
EWG 2.36 1.81%
SMH 2.35 3.14%
XLP 2.34 -0.35%
XLU 2.33 0.45%
EWJ 2.31 0.93%
EEM 2.3 3.84%
TLT 2.3 0.55%
Negative
UVXY 0.46 -10.53%
TVIX 0.5 -11.13%
ERX 0.68 4.37%
JDST 0.7 -8.15%
DIG 0.88 3.44%
VXX 1.1 -5.70%
VIXY 1.11 5.20%
SQQQ 1.16 -6.29%
DUST 1.18 -6.63%
TECS 1.27 -6.66%

2 Weeks ago 10 day call

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
SOXL 2.47 8.62%
NUGT 2.23 -5.82%
SMH 2.22 2.65%
DGAZ 2.14 10.02%
EEM 2.08 1.97%
EDC 2.07 5.69%
EWG 2.07 0.68%
EZU 2.05 0.95%
XLY 2.05 0.31%
TQQQ 2.03 3.17%
Negative
SOXS 0.58 -8.50%
UVXY 0.59 -3.36%
TECS 0.67 -4.12%
TVIX 0.68 -3.17%
SQQQ 0.71 -3.28%
GASL 0.75 -4.60%
VXX 0.75 -1.72%
JDST 0.76 10.71%
VIXY 0.79 -1.54%
GUSH 0.87 -4.74%

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Looking out 10 Days - $SOXL the top pick, $UVXY on the bottom

Looking Out 10 Days

Sym Scale
3-0
Positive
SOXL 2.42
TQQQ 2.38
XLY 2.37
EWG 2.36
SMH 2.35
XLP 2.34
XLU 2.33
EWJ 2.31
EEM 2.3
TLT 2.3
Negative
UVXY 0.46
TVIX 0.5
ERX 0.68
JDST 0.7
DIG 0.88
VXX 1.1
VIXY 1.11
SQQQ 1.16
DUST 1.18
TECS 1.27

Last Week's 10 Day Outlook

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 5 Day
% Change
Positive
SOXL 2.47 -0.69%
NUGT 2.23 -6.93%
SMH 2.22 -0.04%
DGAZ 2.14 15.84%
EEM 2.08 0.34%
EDC 2.07 0.78%
EWG 2.07 -0.34%
EZU 2.05 -0.02%
XLY 2.05 -0.05%
TQQQ 2.03 -1.58%
Negative
SOXS 0.58 0.17%
UVXY 0.59 2.90%
TECS 0.67 0.89%
TVIX 0.68 3.20%
SQQQ 0.71 1.41%
GASL 0.75 -4.16%
VXX 0.75 1.43%
JDST 0.76 11.76%
VIXY 0.79 1.37%
GUSH 0.87 -3.42%

From 10 Days Ago.

Sym Scale
3-0
Last 10 Day
% Change
Positive
LABD 2.45 2.51%
TQQQ 2.36 -6.77%
BIS 2.3 4.41%
EZU 2.28 0.36%
EWG 2.22 -0.41%
DGLD 2.21 4.31%
IEFA 2.21 0.26%
VGK 2.2 0.69%
QLD 2.18 -4.49%
EWU 2.16 1.07%
Negative
FXP 1.07 -0.39%
QID 1.06 4.33%
TECS 1.02 5.67%
UBIO 0.99 -7.36%
EDZ 0.97 -0.90%
YANG 0.82 -0.59%
FAZ 0.8 -5.72%
TVIX 0.79 3.00%
uvxy* 0.79 3.25%
LABU 0.45 -4.60%