Thursday, November 16, 2017

Output fromYet Another New ML Program Showing Estimated 1 Day Change In Selected Leveraged ETFs.

Taking the state table program, posted earlier this week, I created 5 state table classes
  1. Three Moving Averages.
  2. MACD
  3. Bollinger Bands
  4. Three PSARs
  5. a combination of the first 4.
The state value is the average of the 1 day % percentage change using the  modified Bellman equation.  See source code.

With the exception of #5 I found the optimal parameters for each of the state tables for each of the leveraged ETFs I follow.

The 5th table uses the four but is not optimized.  The states for this table is the buy/sell indicator from the 4.

Here's tonight's results sorted by the #5 state's output.  This algorithm looks ahead 1 day.

LABD Buy 1.0086 Sell 0.9997 Buy 1.0079 Buy 1.0064 Buy 1.0151
LBJ Buy 1.0118 Buy 1.0021 Buy 1.0064 Buy 1.0018 Buy 1.0142
DSLV Buy 1.0042 Sell 0.9987 Buy 1.0023 Buy 1.015 Buy 1.011
GUSH Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.0021 Buy 1.0036 Sell 0.9932 Buy 1.0106
DTO Buy 1.0068 Buy 1.0035 Buy 1.0076 Buy 1.0029 Buy 1.0094
EURL Buy 1.0043 Buy 1.0013 Buy 1.0059 Buy 1.0057 Buy 1.0075
SOXL Buy 1.0048 Buy 1.0019 Buy 1.0047 Buy 1.0074 Buy 1.0074
URTY Buy 1.0041 Sell 0.9997 Buy 1.0033 Buy 1.0031 Buy 1.0064
SRS Buy 1.0014 Sell 0.9996 Buy 1.0035 Buy 1.0026 Buy 1.0062
INDL Sell 0.9995 Buy 1.0019 Buy 1.0039 Buy 1.003 Buy 1.006
TMV Buy 1.0046 Sell 0.9983 Buy 1 Buy 1.0004 Buy 1.0056
DUG Buy 1.0021 Buy 1.0006 Buy 1.0027 Sell 0.997 Buy 1.0052
FAZ Buy 1.0029 Sell 0.9965 Sell 0.9978 Buy 1.0046 Buy 1.0044
YANG Sell 0.9986 Sell 0.9986 Buy 1.0039 Buy 1.0046 Buy 1.0044
EEV Buy 1.0048 Sell 0.9993 Buy 1.0034 Sell 0.9969 Buy 1.0042
YINN Buy 1.0072 Buy 1.0011 Buy 1.0057 Sell 0.9994 Buy 1.0039
UDOW Buy 1.0007 Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.0024 Buy 1.0006 Buy 1.0038
UYG Buy 1.0017 Buy 1.0026 Buy 1.0005 Buy 1.004 Buy 1.0038
BDCL Buy 1.0017 Buy 1.0009 Buy 1.0003 Sell 0.9995 Buy 1.0037
SPXL Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.0001 Buy 1.0049 Buy 1.0022 Buy 1.0036
CURE Buy 1.0033 Buy 1.0006 Buy 1.0019 Sell 0.9994 Buy 1.0035
SVXY Buy 1.0011 Buy 1.0029 Sell 0.9956 Buy 1.0065 Buy 1.0035
TNA Buy 1.0079 Sell 0.9997 Buy 1.0021 Sell 0.9983 Buy 1.0035
VIXM Sell 0.9972 Sell 0.9984 Buy 1.0017 Buy 1.0007 Buy 1.0035
AGQ Sell 0.9993 Buy 1.0003 Buy 1.007 Buy 1.0058 Buy 1.0033
TWM Buy 1.002 Buy 1.0003 Sell 0.9984 Buy 1.0028 Buy 1.003
UGL Buy 1.0007 Sell 0.9991 Buy 1.0052 Buy 1.0053 Buy 1.0027
DRV Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.999 Buy 1.0046 Buy 1.0051 Buy 1.0023
BIS Sell 0.9985 Sell 0.9999 Buy 1.0003 Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.0022
ERX Buy 1.0016 Sell 0.9993 Sell 0.9944 Sell 0.9948 Buy 1.0019
UWM Buy 1.0009 Sell 0.9998 Buy 1.0021 Sell 0.9989 Buy 1.0018
NUGT Sell 0.9978 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9963 Buy 1.0368 Buy 1.0017
PSQ Sell 1 Sell 0.9994 Buy 1.0007 Sell 0.9989 Buy 1.0015
TECL Buy 1.0046 Buy 1.0001 Sell 0.9983 Buy 1.0024 Buy 1.0014
CEFL Buy 1.0034 Sell 0.9986 Buy 1.0008 Sell 0.9964 Buy 1.001
MVV Sell 0.9996 Buy 1.0002 Buy 1.0006 Buy 1.002 Buy 1.001
QLD Buy 1.003 Buy 1.0005 Buy 1.0055 Sell 0.9987 Buy 1.001
GASX Buy 1.0042 Buy 1.0018 Buy 1.0031 Sell 0.9855 Buy 1.0008
GLL Buy 1.0009 Buy 1.0007 Sell 0.9987 Buy 1.0018 Buy 1.0008
UST Buy 1.0009 Buy 1 Buy 1.0004 Sell 0.9992 Buy 1.0008
DXD Buy 1.0003 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9977 Sell 0.9978 Buy 1.0005
MIDU Buy 1.0078 Buy 1.0007 Sell 0.9986 Sell 0.9967 Buy 1.0005
MORL Sell 0.9975 Buy 1.001 Buy 1.0027 Buy 1.0037 Buy 1.0005
TMF Sell 0.9985 Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.001 Buy 1.0026 Buy 1.0005
SDOW Buy 1.005 Sell 0.9992 Sell 0.9974 Sell 0.997 Buy 1.0003
SSO Sell 0.999 Buy 1.0004 Buy 1.0035 Buy 1.0018 Buy 1.0003
TECS Sell 0.9962 Sell 0.9989 Buy 1.0024 Sell 0.9988 Buy 1
DOG Buy 1.0016 Sell 0.9997 Sell 0.9989 Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9999
RWM Buy 1.0006 Sell 1 Sell 0.999 Sell 0.999 Sell 0.9999
UPRO Sell 0.9976 Buy 1.0002 Buy 1.0019 Buy 1.003 Sell 0.9999
SQQQ Buy 1.0114 Sell 0.9986 Sell 0.9991 Buy 1.001 Sell 0.9998
TZA Sell 0.9979 Buy 1.0005 Sell 0.997 Buy 1.005 Sell 0.9998
EDC Sell 0.9907 Sell 0.9997 Buy 1.0016 Buy 1.0035 Sell 0.9994
TBT Buy 1.0009 Sell 0.999 Sell 0.9997 Sell 0.9993 Sell 0.9994
DGP Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9988 Buy 1.0009 Buy 1.0053 Sell 0.9993
SPXU Buy 1.0018 Sell 0.9994 Sell 0.9981 Sell 0.9976 Sell 0.9993
PST Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9998 Sell 0.999 Buy 1.0004 Sell 0.9992
SH Buy 1.0005 Sell 0.9998 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9983 Sell 0.9991
TBF Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9994 Sell 0.9995 Sell 1 Sell 0.9985
USLV Buy 1.0019 Buy 1.0003 Sell 0.9979 Sell 0.9946 Sell 0.9985
EPV Buy 1.0005 Buy 1.0012 Sell 0.9974 Sell 0.9933 Sell 0.9984
SKF Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9982 Sell 0.9988 Buy 1.0019 Sell 0.9982
ERY Sell 0.998 Sell 0.9975 Buy 1.0039 Sell 0.9988 Sell 0.9979
EUM Sell 0.9942 Sell 0.9998 Sell 0.9991 Sell 0.998 Sell 0.9979
UGAZ Sell 0.9916 Sell 0.9987 Buy 1.0074 Sell 0.9941 Sell 0.9978
FXP Sell 0.9999 Sell 0.999 Buy 1.0032 Sell 0.9964 Sell 0.9977
DRN Buy 1.005 Buy 1.0011 Sell 0.9948 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9975
URE Buy 1.0008 Buy 1.0017 Sell 0.9961 Sell 0.9945 Sell 0.9975
DDM Sell 0.9985 Buy 1.0007 Buy 1.0011 Buy 1.0005 Sell 0.9973
RETL Sell 0.9979 Buy 1.0007 Sell 0.9988 Buy 1.0014 Sell 0.9969
UBIO Sell 0.9899 Sell 0.9989 Buy 1.0028 Sell 0.9945 Sell 0.9968
SDS Sell 1 Sell 0.9996 Sell 0.9998 Sell 0.9994 Sell 0.9966
SCO Buy 1.0092 Buy 1.0012 Sell 0.9938 Sell 0.9953 Sell 0.9965
SRTY Sell 0.9874 Buy 1.0009 Sell 0.9966 Buy 1.0047 Sell 0.9964
DGLD Buy 1.0016 Buy 1.0012 Sell 0.9986 Sell 0.9988 Sell 0.9963
RUSS Buy 1.0001 Sell 0.9992 Sell 0.9982 Buy 1.0033 Sell 0.9963
QID Sell 0.9985 Sell 0.9994 Sell 0.998 Sell 0.9967 Sell 0.996
SPXS Sell 0.9975 Sell 0.9989 Sell 0.9987 Sell 0.9969 Sell 0.996
UCO Sell 0.9912 Sell 0.9967 Sell 0.9953 Buy 1.0108 Sell 0.996
YCS Sell 0.998 Sell 0.9998 Sell 0.9992 Sell 0.9978 Sell 0.996
BZQ Buy 1.0039 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9959 Sell 0.9968 Sell 0.9959
JDST Buy 1.0023 Sell 0.9983 Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9925 Sell 0.9957
MIDZ Buy 1.0012 Sell 0.9946 Sell 0.9981 Sell 0.9928 Sell 0.9957
DIG Sell 0.9942 Sell 0.9997 Sell 0.9978 Sell 0.9968 Sell 0.9955
TTT Sell 0.9967 Sell 0.9981 Sell 0.9989 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9955
EDZ Sell 0.9989 Sell 0.999 Buy 1.002 Sell 0.9889 Sell 0.9954
FAS Sell 0.9985 Buy 1.0023 Buy 1.0034 Sell 0.9985 Sell 0.9954
TQQQ Sell 0.9995 Buy 1.0019 Sell 0.9957 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9952
VIXY Sell 0.998 Sell 0.9976 Sell 0.9973 Sell 0.9896 Sell 0.9948
DUST Buy 1.0045 Sell 0.9961 Sell 0.9963 Sell 0.9957 Sell 0.9947
EUO Sell 0.9985 Sell 0.9992 Buy 1.0014 Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9943
ZSL Sell 0.9981 Buy 1.0001 Sell 0.9965 Sell 0.9971 Sell 0.9943
LABU Buy 1.0023 Buy 1.003 Sell 0.9917 Sell 0.9848 Sell 0.9942
SOXS Sell 0.9971 Sell 0.9968 Sell 0.997 Sell 1 Sell 0.9937
BIB Sell 0.9893 Buy 1.0001 Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9981 Sell 0.9936
BOIL Sell 0.9989 Sell 0.9975 Sell 0.9974 Sell 0.99 Sell 0.9921
UGLD Sell 0.9982 Sell 0.9987 Sell 0.9964 Buy 1.0235 Sell 0.9916
TVIZ Sell 0.9895 Sell 0.9938 Sell 0.9978 Sell 0.9865 Sell 0.9914
RUSL Sell 0.9978 Buy 1.004 Sell 0.9984 Sell 0.9944 Sell 0.9912
CHAU Sell 0.9983 Sell 0.9997 Sell 0.9967 Buy 1.0042 Sell 0.9905
TVIX Sell 0.976 Sell 0.9947 Sell 0.9923 Sell 0.9597 Sell 0.9894
BRZU Sell 0.9995 Sell 0.9974 Sell 0.9948 Sell 0.9883 Sell 0.988
UVXY Sell 0.9929 Sell 0.9935 Sell 0.9902 Sell 0.9657 Sell 0.9875
GASL Sell 0.9985 Sell 0.9951 Sell 0.9918 Sell 0.9869 Sell 0.9872
JNUG Sell 0.9941 Buy 1.0033 Sell 0.987 Sell 0.9881 Sell 0.981
DGAZ Sell 0.9919 Buy 1.0058 Sell 0.9882 Sell 0.9969 Sell 0.967

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