Maybe "Sell In May..." Is In Play

Based on 4 separate computer models I'm looking for a general drop in the U.S. markets in the coming 2 to 3 weeks.

In particular note the rise in the VIX while the bottom four are general market indexes.  And leading the downers is Transports; didn't Chas. Dow use the Transports as a leading indicator for the general market?

We shall see...

Symbol	Day 0	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Day 4	Day 5	Day 6	Day 7	Day 8	Day 9	Average
^VIX	9.32%	11.23%	12.11%	10.08%	20.39%	14.29%	14.42%	28.01%	24.01%	12.35%	15.62%
^XNG	1.32%	5.01%	3.08%	2.90%	3.16%	2.34%	0.84%	0.47%	2.91%	1.94%	2.40%
^BANK	0.79%	0.73%	3.47%	3.39%	4.00%	3.31%	0.72%	1.52%	1.56%	2.39%	2.19%
^IXTC	1.05%	0.99%	0.90%	0.70%	1.35%	1.84%	0.68%	-0.50%	-0.02%	1.49%	0.85%
^HGX	-1.48%	1.21%	1.09%	0.48%	0.25%	0.34%	0.18%	0.81%	0.91%	1.46%	0.52%
^XAU	-2.36%	-0.65%	0.07%	1.41%	1.48%	-0.28%	0.59%	0.55%	1.48%	2.69%	0.50%
^HUI	0.17%	2.17%	-0.79%	-1.76%	-1.85%	-1.47%	1.75%	1.88%	0.05%	1.82%	0.20%
^XOI	-0.79%	0.51%	-0.50%	-0.29%	0.73%	0.29%	0.80%	-0.84%	1.82%	-0.38%	0.13%
^NBI	0.20%	-0.18%	-0.24%	0.11%	0.57%	0.93%	-1.37%	0.02%	-0.72%	-1.46%	-0.21%
^INSR	-0.52%	-0.53%	-0.56%	0.12%	-0.78%	0.06%	-1.08%	-0.65%	-0.67%	1.06%	-0.36%
^IXCO	-0.51%	-1.01%	-1.40%	-1.06%	-0.56%	0.09%	-1.94%	-1.70%	-1.06%	0.41%	-0.87%
^NASD	-0.32%	-0.18%	-1.65%	-1.57%	-0.98%	-0.58%	-1.91%	-1.42%	-1.44%	-0.11%	-1.02%
^INDS	-0.83%	-1.42%	-1.63%	-1.11%	-1.46%	-1.43%	-2.59%	-2.15%	-1.51%	0.34%	-1.38%
^SP500	-0.38%	-1.64%	-1.52%	-1.74%	-1.89%	-1.41%	-1.48%	-1.59%	-2.37%	-0.86%	-1.49%
^UTY	-2.50%	-2.32%	-2.32%	-1.23%	-1.97%	-2.73%	-2.52%	-2.81%	-1.82%	1.13%	-1.91%
^TRAN	-3.27%	-1.89%	-2.77%	-2.63%	-2.41%	-3.15%	-6.42%	-3.69%	-4.17%	-1.37%	-3.18%

The 4 models:
1. Positive Change
   Decide if change is estimated to be:
   1. greater than average positive change
   2. positive but not greater than average positive change
   3. negative change
2. Negative Change
   Decide if change is estimated to be:
   1. less than average negative change
   2. negative but not less than average negative change
   3. negative change
3. Positive or negative Change
   Decide if change is estimated to be:
   1. greater than average positive change
   2. positive but not greater than average positive change
   3. negative but not less than average negative change
   4. less than average negative change
4. Average change (an average change can be either positive or negative) with standard deviation
   Decide is estimated to be:
   1. greater than average plus 1.5 * std dev.
   2. greater than average but less than average plus 1.5 * std dev.
   3. less than average less 1.5 * std dev.
   4. less than average

10 Day Strongest/Weakest Forecast of Selected Leveraged ETFS

Next 10 Day Call

Sym	Scale 3-0
Positive
JNUG	2.46
SMHD	1.69
BRZU	1.66
ERY	1.58
LBJ	1.57
DSLV	1.55
MIDU	1.53
NUGT	1.49
XRT	1.47
LABD	1.46
Negative
UCO	0.33
USO	0.46
XME	0.48
XOP	0.53
ERX	0.54
TBT	0.59
TWM	0.59
OIL	0.6
BZQ	0.62
dust*	0.64

Last Weeks;s 10 Day Call

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positive
BRZU	2.23	-36.13%
SPXL	2.14	-2.65%
SQQQ	2.14	1.75%
JNUG	2.07	-0.68%
MIDU	2.06	-4.23%
TNA	2.04	-5.86%
INDL	1.98	-4.78%
EWZ	1.97	-11.36%
TECS	1.97	2.67%
UNG	1.94	-3.90%
Negative
EWU	0.91	0.82%
GUSH	0.96	-6.85%
JDST	1.04	-0.82%
LMLP	1.08	-1.22%
XLK	1.1	-1.05%
DIA	1.11	-0.80%
ITB	1.12	-0.72%
INDA	1.13	-1.63%
TQQQ	1.13	-2.23%

10 Days Ago Call

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positive
JNUG	2.33	22.91%
BND	2.3	0.56%
VNQ	2.22	-0.20%
XLU	2.2	0.51%
EWC	2.18	-0.63%
IWM	2.16	-0.95%
JNK	2.15	0.49%
TLT	2.15	1.38%
EPI	2.14	1.39%
UYM	2.14	-0.90%
Negative
NUGT	0.56	18.12%
FAZ	0.58	2.89%
UBIO	0.63	1.82%
UVXY	0.67	3.30%
SQQQ	0.69	-1.52%
QID	0.7	-0.93%
SPXU	0.7	0.93%
SRTY	0.7	2.68%
VIXY	0.71	2.30%
VXX	0.71	2.42%

Selected Leveraged ETF Direction Call For The Next 10 Days.

Looking out for the next 10 days

Sym	Scale 3-0
Positive
BRZU	2.23
SPXL	2.14
SQQQ	2.14
JNUG	2.07
MIDU	2.06
TNA	2.04
INDL	1.98
EWZ	1.97
TECS	1.97
UNG	1.94
Negative
EWU	0.91
GUSH	0.96
JDST	1.04
LMLP	1.08
XLK	1.1
DIA	1.11
ITB	1.12
INDA	1.13
TQQQ	1.13
QQQ	1.15

Results For Last Week's Call

Still 5 days to go; the positives are 6 for 10 but only one negative is on the correct track.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positive
JNUG	2.33	3.37%
BND	2.3	0.45%
VNQ	2.22	0.34%
XLU	2.2	0.15%
EWC	2.18	-0.20%
IWM	2.16	-0.93%
JNK	2.15	0.11%
TLT	2.15	1.30%
EPI	2.14	-0.62%
UYM	2.14	-0.56%
Negative
NUGT	0.56	2.86%
FAZ	0.58	1.66%
UBIO	0.63	-1.25%
UVXY	0.67	11.93%
SQQQ	0.69	1.77%
QID	0.7	1.19%
SPXU	0.7	1.58%
SRTY	0.7	2.63%
VIXY	0.71	6.70%
VXX	0.71	2.57%

Results from 2 weeks ago

Not bad for either negative or positive with both 7 out of 10 with the correct direction call.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positive
XOP	2.49	1.21%
AGG	2.38	0.33%
TLT	2.34	0.51%
VNQ	2.24	-1.00%
GDX	2.23	5.37%
BND	2.22	0.28%
EPI	2.22	1.16%
MVV	2.19	-2.31%
IWD	2.18	-0.79%
PGX	2.15	0.07%
Negative
VIXY	0.88	0.31%
VXX	0.88	-0.80%
LABU	0.86	-2.90%
UVXY	0.85	-0.40%
TBT	0.83	-0.99%
NUGT	0.81	16.74%
UBIO	0.76	-4.08%
TVIX	0.73	-6.00%
UGAZ	0.73	7.71%
ERY	0.57	-2.30%

Using A New Machine Learning Algorithm for L.ETFs 10 Day Outlook.

This week note the JNUG and NUGT cantango.

 I made an adjustment as to what method is used to make for the machine learning choices..  The IbK logic was dropped in favor of  RandomForest.

Sym	Scale 3-0
Positive
JNUG	2.33
BND	2.3
VNQ	2.22
XLU	2.2
EWC	2.18
IWM	2.16
JNK	2.15
TLT	2.15
EPI	2.14
UYM	2.14
Negative
NUGT	0.56
FAZ	0.58
UBIO	0.63
UVXY	0.67
SQQQ	0.69
QID	0.7
SPXU	0.7
SRTY	0.7
VIXY	0.71
VXX	0.71

Last week then negatives were a good call, but still 5 days left.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positive
XOP	2.49	1.35%
AGG	2.38	-0.08%
TLT	2.34	-0.45%
VNQ	2.24	-1.00%
GDX	2.23	2.71%
BND	2.22	-0.12%
EPI	2.22	0.99%
MVV	2.19	-1.18%
IWD	2.18	-0.43%
PGX	2.15	0.35%
Negative
VIXY	0.88	-2.63%
VXX	0.88	-2.65%
LABU	0.86	-3.55%
UVXY	0.85	-5.34%
TBT	0.83	0.95%
NUGT	0.81	8.43%
UBIO	0.76	-3.84%
TVIX	0.73	-5.37%
UGAZ	0.73	4.22%
ERY	0.57	-2.04%

The final call for 2 weeks ago is down-right horrible.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positive
XOP	2.71	-0.03%
TLT	2.68	-1.12%
AGG	2.59	-0.56%
OIH	2.5	-1.83%
BND	2.47	-0.46%
XBI	2.42	-2.50%
JNK	2.37	-0.39%
DIG	2.36	-1.20%
CURE	2.33	0.33%
URTY	2.32	-1.61%
Negative
SRTY	0.85	1.37%
DXD	0.84	-0.33%
ERY	0.79	1.16%
FAZ	0.79	-1.23%
FXP	0.61	1.23%
LABD	0.61	7.37%
YANG	0.61	1.83%
VIXY	0.53	-5.06%
SOXS	0.51	-5.07%
BIS	0.12	2.42%

Forecasting Some Leverage ETFs for the Next 10 Days

Picks for Next 10 Days

Sym	Scale 3-0
Positive
XOP	2.49
AGG	2.38
TLT	2.34
VNQ	2.24
GDX	2.23
BND	2.22
EPI	2.22
MVV	2.19
IWD	2.18
PGX	2.15
Negative
VIXY	0.88
VXX	0.88
LABU	0.86
UVXY	0.85
TBT	0.83
NUGT	0.81
UBIO	0.76
TVIX	0.73
UGAZ	0.73
ERY	0.57

Last weeks picks for its 10 day outlook,  so far not looking too good.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positive
XOP	2.71	-1.62%
TLT	2.68	-0.71%
AGG	2.59	-0.45%
OIH	2.5	-2.36%
BND	2.47	-0.36%
XBI	2.42	-1.32%
JNK	2.37	-0.53%
DIG	2.36	-2.49%
CURE	2.33	1.24%
URTY	2.32	-1.22%
Negative
BIS	0.98	0.18%
SOXS	0.96	-0.69%
SRTY	0.94	1.04%
ERY	0.92	3.41%
TWM	0.91	0.78%
UVXY	0.91	-6.38%
TVIX	0.88	-6.66%
HEDJ	0.81	1.94%
UBIO	0.39	-0.30%
EURL	0.35	6.02%

For the 10 day forecast 2 weeks ago the picks were pretty good but the DGAZ and OIH calls were horrible.

Sym	Scale 3-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positive
DGAZ	2.46	-4.03%
OIH	2.43	-3.13%
AGG	2.42	-0.42%
UWM	2.42	3.19%
EEM	2.4	2.22%
XOP	2.39	-0.85%
TNA	2.38	4.74%
XPP	2.36	1.89%
EWY	2.35	2.81%
CURE	2.34	7.71%
Negative
SRTY	0.85	-4.94%
DXD	0.84	-3.72%
ERY	0.79	1.13%
FAZ	0.79	-4.48%
FXP	0.61	-1.92%
LABD	0.61	-12.36%
YANG	0.61	-2.97%
VIXY	0.53	-14.56%
SOXS	0.51	-5.59%
BIS	0.12	-6.56%