Thursday, November 12, 2015

Expecting More Deterioration


The model is estimating a continued downturn in the general market. 

There could be some confirmation with leveraged ETFs (see 2nd table).  2 VIX related  l. ETFs  (TVIX and UVXY) generated strong numbers and when the VIX gets strong the markets drops.

Note: on Monday the model has Gold with a possible recovery. (The estimated percentage changes are to today's close).  So GLD may do a ~2.8%+ recovery from Friday's close and not much activity for the following 3 days.

Energies (XNG  and OIL) look horrible through next Thursday. Confirmation? the leverage ETFs: DWTI, SCO, DGAZ, DTO and ERY are all inverse related to the price of oil and natural gas and they are in the top 10.


Yahoo
Symbol
Fri 13 Mon 16 Tue 17 Wed 18 Thu 19 Average
^INDS -0.03% -0.25% -0.58% -1.37% 0.20% -0.40%
^IXCO -0.12% -0.44% 0.18% -1.27% -0.45% -0.42%
^IXIC -0.49% -0.47% -1.03% -1.63% 0.66% -0.59%
GLD -3.42% -0.63% -0.25% 1.32% 0.00% -0.60%
^INSR -0.10% -1.27% 0.08% -1.56% -0.27% -0.62%
^NBI -1.05% 0.05% 0.72% -2.15% -0.69% -0.62%
^TRAN 0.52% 0.34% -0.68% -2.78% -0.97% -0.71%
^GSPC -0.70% -0.64% -0.83% -1.30% -0.31% -0.76%
^IXTC -0.16% -0.67% -0.96% -1.29% -0.76% -0.77%
^RUT -0.79% -0.15% -1.86% -2.01% -0.07% -0.97%
^XNG -2.15% -1.31% -2.53% -4.48% -2.20% -2.53%
OIL -4.12% -1.88% -3.34% -4.73% -4.98% -3.81%

Top 10 L. ETFs.


Symbol
Fri 13 Mon 16 Tue 17 Wed 18 Thu 19 Average
TVIX 5.18% 13.13% 5.53% 19.05% 15.88% 11.76%
dwti* 0.63% 12.32% 13.07% 13.31% 13.05% 10.48%
UVXY 3.83% 14.98% -0.09% 12.76% 16.22% 9.54%
SCO 9.05% 5.25% 6.99% 10.36% 5.13% 7.35%
dgaz* 4.46% 7.24% 4.95% 4.26% 11.80% 6.54%
DTO 8.60% 2.70% 5.14% 6.49% 7.46% 6.08%
ERY 3.44% 4.21% 6.92% 11.90% 2.81% 5.86%
RUSS 0.36% 8.06% 2.39% 2.22% 13.79% 5.36%
TZA 0.97% 5.88% 8.53% 9.58% 1.26% 5.24%
DSLV -0.19% 1.29% 5.74% 5.26% 9.48% 4.31%

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