Tuesday, July 28, 2020

I Am Avoiding US Energy ETFs.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:75%0%
was cash:18.5%0%
was stocks:0%25%
was stocks:65.1%16.3%

75%25%bearish
83.7%16.3%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:76.8%23.2%
was cash:48.1%0%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:51.9%0%

76.8%23.2%bearish
100%0%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:40.4%11.7%
was cash:0%8%
was stocks:0%47.9%
was stocks:28.9%63.1%

40.4%59.6%bullish
28.9%71.1%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:77%0%
was cash:0%7.8%
was stocks:23%0%
was stocks:30.2%62%

100%0%bearish
30.2%69.8%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:81.8%0%
was cash:18%0%
was stocks:0%18.2%
was stocks:43.4%38.5%

81.8%18.2%bearish
61.5%38.5%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:100%0%
was cash:63%0%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:19%18%

100%0%bearish
82%18%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:71.7%28.3%
was cash:37.3%12.6%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:50.1%0%

71.7%28.3%bearish
87.4%12.6%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:83.6%0%
was cash:19.8%0%
was stocks:0%16.4%
was stocks:44.6%35.6%

83.6%16.4%bearish
64.4%35.6%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:84.1%0%
was cash:8.9%0%
was stocks:0%15.9%
was stocks:41.5%49.6%

84.1%15.9%bearish
50.4%49.6%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:51.1%14.4%
was cash:37.5%0%
was stocks:18%16.5%
was stocks:54.2%8.3%

69%31%bearish
91.7%8.3%bearish


Thursday, July 2, 2020

I am Not Expecting Much Change In Energy.

The models disagree with each other, and the differential between cash/stock is high in both.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocksXOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.8%0%was cash:66.2%0%
was stocks:22.7%55.4%was stocks:33.8%0%
44.6%55.4%bullish100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocksXLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:36.7%0%was cash:69.7%12.9%
was stocks:0%63.3%was stocks:0%17.4%
36.7%63.3%bullish69.7%30.3%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocksOIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.6%0%was cash:88%12%
was stocks:0%82.4%was stocks:0%0%
17.6%82.4%bullish88%12%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocksXES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:40.5%0%was cash:60.8%12.4%
was stocks:0%59.5%was stocks:26.8%0%
40.5%59.5%bullish87.6%12.4%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocksIYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:20.4%0%was cash:86.3%13.7%
was stocks:0%79.6%was stocks:0%0%
20.4%79.6%bullish86.3%13.7%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocksFXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.1%0%was cash:81%0%
was stocks:0%61.9%was stocks:19%0%
38.1%61.9%bullish100%0%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocksIXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.7%0%was cash:71%29%
was stocks:0%65.3%was stocks:0%0%
34.7%65.3%bullish71%29%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocksVDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.3%0%was cash:87.2%12.8%
was stocks:0%78.7%was stocks:0%0%
21.3%78.7%bullish87.2%12.8%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocksFENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:21%0%was cash:39%43.7%
was stocks:0%79%was stocks:0%17.3%
21%79%bullish39%61%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocksFCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:35.3%0%was cash:73.9%0%
was stocks:19.7%45%was stocks:8.9%17.2%
55%45%bearish82.8%17.2%bearish



Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Bearish On Energy


For the bullish calls - the differentials are marginal at best.


Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:42.2%22.5%
was cash:30.7%0%
was stocks:22.1%13.2%
was stocks:69.3%0%
64.3%35.7%bearish100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:48.1%0%
was cash:60.8%39.2%
was stocks:0%51.9%
was stocks:0%0%
48.1%51.9%bullish60.8%39.2%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.9%21%
was cash:83.7%0%
was stocks:17.1%40.1%
was stocks:16.3%0%
39%61%bullish100%0%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:75.8%12.4%
was cash:33%21.2%
was stocks:0%11.8%
was stocks:45.7%0%
75.8%24.2%bearish78.8%21.2%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:37.1%0%
was cash:53.1%23.1%
was stocks:0%62.9%
was stocks:0%23.8%
37.1%62.9%bullish53.1%46.9%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68.8%31.2%
was cash:47.7%16.8%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:35.6%0%
68.8%31.2%bearish83.2%16.8%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:66.9%0%
was cash:71.2%9.5%
was stocks:0%33.1%
was stocks:19.3%0%
66.9%33.1%bearish90.5%9.5%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:52.8%0%
was cash:57.6%0%
was stocks:0%47.2%
was stocks:0%42.4%
52.8%47.2%bearish57.6%42.4%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:53%0%
was cash:29.2%25.2%
was stocks:0%47%
was stocks:23.6%22%
53%47%bearish52.8%47.2%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:36.4%0%
was cash:37.8%15.7%
was stocks:16.9%46.7%
was stocks:37.2%9.2%
53.3%46.7%bearish75%25%bearish


The 30 trading day outlook has some recovery towards the end of the period.
$XOP
$IXC

Saturday, June 13, 2020

A Lot More Bear Calls For Energy


Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:41.5%24.3%
was cash:100%0%
was stocks:21.7%12.4%
was stocks:0%0%

63.2%36.8%bearish
100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:11.4%0%
was cash:63.9%0%
was stocks:26.6%62%
was stocks:36.1%0%

38%62%bullish
100%0%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:40%0%
was cash:65.2%0%
was stocks:32.1%27.9%
was stocks:20.1%14.7%

72.1%27.9%bearish
85.3%14.7%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:25.9%23%
was cash:53.4%0%
was stocks:51.2%0%
was stocks:25%21.6%

77%23%bearish
78.4%21.6%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:27.7%12.8%
was cash:22.2%8.8%
was stocks:0%59.5%
was stocks:33.8%35.2%

27.7%72.3%bullish
56%44%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:80.8%0%
was cash:51.5%12.7%
was stocks:19.2%0%
was stocks:35.8%0%

100%0%bearish
87.3%12.7%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%0%
was cash:47.2%0%
was stocks:32.6%67.4%
was stocks:36%16.7%

32.6%67.4%bullish
83.3%16.7%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:29.8%0%
was cash:48.4%0%
was stocks:0%70.2%
was stocks:31.1%20.5%

29.8%70.2%bullish
79.5%20.5%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:43.5%0%
was cash:54.4%0%
was stocks:0%56.5%
was stocks:21.9%23.7%

43.5%56.5%bullish
76.3%23.7%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:13%54.7%
was cash:36%14%
was stocks:0%32.3%
was stocks:41%9.1%

13%87%bullish
77%23%bearish

From my 30 day out-look some confirmation has Energy with oranges and yellows for the next two weeks.  Reds, oranges and yellows indicate selling situations.

Sectors - As Of June 12
You can get a copy of this report from http://mcverryreport.com follow the links to download The Short Term Trader Report.

Monday, June 1, 2020

18 Out Of 20 Energy Related Models are Bullish, Service Related Showing Sell Signs


$XOP 30 Days Outlook
$OIH  30 Day Outlook

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:11.4%20.1%
was cash:0%26.2%
was stocks:30.9%37.6%
was stocks:18.4%55.4%
42.3%57.7%bullish 18.4%81.6%bullish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:28.4%16.5%
was cash:0%34.3%
was stocks:12.5%42.6%
was stocks:16.2%49.5%
40.9%59.1%bullish 16.2%83.8%bullish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:39.2%0%
was cash:0%6.2%
was stocks:0%60.8%
was stocks:44.9%48.9%
39.2%60.8%bullish 44.9%55.1%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:55.5%31.4%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%13.1%
was stocks:30.8%69.2%
55.5%44.5%bearish 30.8%69.2%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.4%17%
was cash:10%36%
was stocks:14.5%51.1%
was stocks:36.7%17.4%
31.9%68.1%bullish 46.7%53.3%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.3%12.3%
was cash:9.5%39%
was stocks:0%49.4%
was stocks:18.7%32.8%
38.3%61.7%bullish 28.2%71.8%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:54%32.2%
was cash:0%46.7%
was stocks:13.8%0%
was stocks:34.1%19.3%
67.8%32.2%bearish 34.1%65.9%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:30.4%33.3%
was cash:9.9%21.9%
was stocks:0%36.3%
was stocks:13.6%54.6%
30.4%69.6%bullish 23.5%76.5%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:31.1%32%
was cash:0%16.6%
was stocks:0%36.9%
was stocks:26.9%56.5%
31.1%68.9%bullish 26.9%73.1%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:30.3%19.4%
was cash:21.3%17.4%
was stocks:18.9%31.4%
was stocks:41.5%19.8%
49.2%50.8%bullish 62.9%37.1%bearish

Saturday, May 23, 2020

The QLearning Model Is Extremely Bullish All Things Energy. Monte Carlo and WAEVE Ensemble Not As Much

A thing to remember is that the MC and Qlearning models are very short term.


Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:53.1%14.1%
was cash:10%0%
was stocks:21.8%11.1%
was stocks:0%90%
74.8%25.2%bearish 10%90%bullish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:26.5%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:11.9%61.6%
was stocks:27.9%72.1%
38.4%61.6%bullish 27.9%72.1%bullish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.1%0%
was cash:17.6%0%
was stocks:41.4%25.5%
was stocks:0%82.4%
74.5%25.5%bearish 17.6%82.4%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:76.5%0%
was cash:6.7%0%
was stocks:0%23.5%
was stocks:29.1%64.2%
76.5%23.5%bearish 35.8%64.2%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.1%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%65.9%
was stocks:26.5%73.5%
34.1%65.9%bullish 26.5%73.5%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:45.4%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:23.9%30.7%
was stocks:14.6%85.4%
69.3%30.7%bearish 14.6%85.4%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:50%0%
was cash:7.2%0%
was stocks:32.9%17.1%
was stocks:0%92.8%
82.9%17.1%bearish 7.2%92.8%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:61.6%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%38.4%
was stocks:27.2%72.8%
61.6%38.4%bearish 27.2%72.8%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:61.8%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%38.2%
was stocks:46.4%53.6%
61.8%38.2%bearish 46.4%53.6%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:58%16.5%
was cash:0%36.5%
was stocks:13.1%12.4%
was stocks:0%63.5%
71.1%28.9%bearish 0%100%bullish

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Short Term For US Energy ETFs Barely Positive - 30 Day Outlook Is Positive.



See 30 trading day expectations for $XOP and $XLE below.



Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:13%21.5%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:30.2%35.4%
was stocks:71.8%28.2%
43.1%56.9%bullish 71.8%28.2%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.1%20.1%
was cash:0%8.2%
was stocks:12%33.9%
was stocks:29.1%62.7%
46%54%bullish 29.1%70.9%bullish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:66.4%0%
was cash:8.6%23.5%
was stocks:10.2%23.4%
was stocks:30.6%37.3%
76.6%23.4%bearish 39.2%60.8%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:69.4%13.6%
was cash:0%13.6%
was stocks:0%17%
was stocks:35.8%50.6%
69.4%30.6%bearish 35.8%64.2%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68.9%0%
was cash:0%9.2%
was stocks:14.4%16.7%
was stocks:28.6%62.2%
83.3%16.7%bearish 28.6%71.4%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:44.8%16.2%
was cash:0%16.9%
was stocks:0%39%
was stocks:16.3%66.8%
44.8%55.2%bullish 16.3%83.7%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:37.9%0%
was cash:0%9.9%
was stocks:14.4%47.7%
was stocks:41.1%49%
52.3%47.7%bearish 41.1%58.9%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:84.4%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%15.6%
was stocks:26.6%73.4%
84.4%15.6%bearish 26.6%73.4%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:100%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:46.1%53.9%
100%0%bearish 46.1%53.9%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:73.3%0%
was cash:9.7%7.4%
was stocks:26.7%0%
was stocks:47.6%35.3%
100%0%bearish 57.3%42.7%bearish

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Most Models Are Bearish Except For Exploration and Nat. Gas

XOP
OIH
Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:32.7%11.9%
was cash:39.2%41.2%
was stocks:0%55.5%
was stocks:0%19.6%
32.7%67.3%bullish39.2%60.8%bullish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:53.3%16.9%
was cash:0%80.4%
was stocks:0%29.8%
was stocks:0%19.6%
53.3%46.7%bearish0%100%bullish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:87.1%0%
was cash:14.1%0%
was stocks:0%12.9%
was stocks:62.2%23.7%
87.1%12.9%bearish76.3%23.7%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:80.7%0%
was cash:30.3%20.8%
was stocks:0%19.3%
was stocks:0%48.9%
80.7%19.3%bearish30.3%69.7%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:22.4%16.3%
was cash:9.7%36.3%
was stocks:45.9%15.4%
was stocks:0%54%
68.3%31.7%bearish9.7%90.3%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:40%11.8%
was cash:10.9%33.7%
was stocks:12.6%35.6%
was stocks:18.9%36.6%
52.7%47.3%bearish29.8%70.2%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:55.7%14.1%
was cash:13.3%53.3%
was stocks:13.4%16.9%
was stocks:0%33.3%
69.1%30.9%bearish13.3%86.7%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:51.5%17%
was cash:12.7%69.8%
was stocks:15.6%15.9%
was stocks:0%17.5%
67.1%32.9%bearish12.7%87.3%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:35.4%16.2%
was cash:0%60.7%
was stocks:34%14.4%
was stocks:18.4%20.9%
69.4%30.6%bearish18.4%81.6%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.6%33.3%
was cash:39.4%19.9%
was stocks:0%28.1%
was stocks:0%40.7%
38.6%61.4%bullish39.4%60.6%bullish