Saturday, September 5, 2020

Models Turning To The Buy Side for Energy ETFs

Compared to the calls from past weeks, the models are getting more bullish. Still, it's about 50-50 between bull-bear signals; even the cash-stock differentials are substantial both ways. I'll remain on the sidelines to wait for a more specific call

 

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:15.5%0%
was cash:59%41%
was stocks:0%84.5%
was stocks:0%0%

15.5%84.5%bullish
59%41%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.4%16.7%
was cash:69.4%30.6%
was stocks:0%49.9%
was stocks:0%0%

33.4%66.6%bullish
69.4%30.6%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.5%0%
was cash:75.9%16.2%
was stocks:0%65.5%
was stocks:7.9%0%

34.5%65.5%bullish
83.8%16.2%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:35.3%0%
was cash:33.2%47.2%
was stocks:19.1%45.6%
was stocks:9%10.6%

54.4%45.6%bearish
42.2%57.8%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:15.4%0%
was cash:100%0%
was stocks:0%84.6%
was stocks:0%0%

15.4%84.6%bullish
100%0%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:32.9%13.3%
was cash:58.5%34.2%
was stocks:0%53.7%
was stocks:7.3%0%

32.9%67.1%bullish
65.8%34.2%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:49.8%0%
was cash:85.1%14.9%
was stocks:0%50.2%
was stocks:0%0%

49.8%50.2%bullish
85.1%14.9%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:15.5%0%
was cash:100%0%
was stocks:0%84.5%
was stocks:0%0%

15.5%84.5%bullish
100%0%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:15.8%0%
was cash:100%0%
was stocks:0%84.2%
was stocks:0%0%

15.8%84.2%bullish
100%0%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:15.9%0%
was cash:78%17.5%
was stocks:0%84.1%
was stocks:4.5%0%

15.9%84.1%bullish
82.5%17.5%bearish

 

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

I Continue To Avoid The Energy Sector

Both the Monte Carlo and QLearning models are saying avoid the Energy sector.  My newsletter The Short Term Trader says the energy sector does not have good numbers over the next 30 days.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.4%0%
was cash:12.7%15.9%
was stocks:26.9%39.7%
was stocks:56.4%15%

60.3%39.7%bearish
69.1%30.9%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:50.8%0%
was cash:71.7%13.2%
was stocks:15.3%33.9%
was stocks:15.1%0%

66.1%33.9%bearish
86.8%13.2%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:45.7%13.5%
was cash:44.8%29.5%
was stocks:0%40.8%
was stocks:9.8%15.9%

45.7%54.3%bullish
54.5%45.5%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.3%48.5%
was cash:50.3%11.7%
was stocks:0%17.2%
was stocks:0%38%

34.3%65.7%bullish
50.3%49.7%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:46.2%31.8%
was cash:49.9%0%
was stocks:0%21.9%
was stocks:50.1%0%

46.2%53.8%bullish
100%0%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:29.3%0%
was cash:48%0%
was stocks:15.6%55.1%
was stocks:38.3%13.7%

44.9%55.1%bullish
86.3%13.7%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:48.8%0%
was cash:65.9%0%
was stocks:18.7%32.5%
was stocks:17.6%16.4%

67.5%32.5%bearish
83.6%16.4%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:31.3%32.8%
was cash:51.9%11.9%
was stocks:14.6%21.3%
was stocks:16.7%19.5%

45.9%54.1%bullish
68.6%31.4%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:45.7%18.2%
was cash:30.8%0%
was stocks:14.4%21.7%
was stocks:34.1%35.1%

60.1%39.9%bearish
64.9%35.1%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:45.9%17.9%
was cash:77.2%0%
was stocks:36.2%0%
was stocks:14.7%8.1%

82.1%17.9%bearish
91.9%8.1%bearish

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Both Models Remain On The Sell Side

While there is some bullishness in the QLearning calls, generally both models say stay in cash.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:60.2%16.8%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:23%0%
was stocks:70.6%29.4%

83.2%16.8%bearish
70.6%29.4%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:83.6%0%
was cash:11.7%0%
was stocks:16.4%0%
was stocks:44.4%43.9%

100%0%bearish
56.1%43.9%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:63.7%0%
was cash:26.8%0%
was stocks:0%36.3%
was stocks:8.4%64.8%

63.7%36.3%bearish
35.2%64.8%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.4%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:22.1%44.5%
was stocks:43.2%56.8%

55.5%44.5%bearish
43.2%56.8%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:84.1%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%15.9%
was stocks:11.3%88.7%

84.1%15.9%bearish
11.3%88.7%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:63.3%16.3%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%20.4%
was stocks:13.6%86.4%

63.3%36.7%bearish
13.6%86.4%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68%32%
was cash:0%22.1%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:15%62.9%

68%32%bearish
15%85%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68.3%0%
was cash:0%10.9%
was stocks:0%31.7%
was stocks:17.8%71.3%

68.3%31.7%bearish
17.8%82.2%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68.1%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%31.9%
was stocks:48.3%51.7%

68.1%31.9%bearish
48.3%51.7%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:47.5%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:30.1%22.5%
was stocks:62.8%37.2%

77.5%22.5%bearish
62.8%37.2%bearish


 


Tuesday, July 28, 2020

I Am Avoiding US Energy ETFs.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:75%0%
was cash:18.5%0%
was stocks:0%25%
was stocks:65.1%16.3%

75%25%bearish
83.7%16.3%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:76.8%23.2%
was cash:48.1%0%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:51.9%0%

76.8%23.2%bearish
100%0%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:40.4%11.7%
was cash:0%8%
was stocks:0%47.9%
was stocks:28.9%63.1%

40.4%59.6%bullish
28.9%71.1%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:77%0%
was cash:0%7.8%
was stocks:23%0%
was stocks:30.2%62%

100%0%bearish
30.2%69.8%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:81.8%0%
was cash:18%0%
was stocks:0%18.2%
was stocks:43.4%38.5%

81.8%18.2%bearish
61.5%38.5%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:100%0%
was cash:63%0%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:19%18%

100%0%bearish
82%18%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:71.7%28.3%
was cash:37.3%12.6%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:50.1%0%

71.7%28.3%bearish
87.4%12.6%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:83.6%0%
was cash:19.8%0%
was stocks:0%16.4%
was stocks:44.6%35.6%

83.6%16.4%bearish
64.4%35.6%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:84.1%0%
was cash:8.9%0%
was stocks:0%15.9%
was stocks:41.5%49.6%

84.1%15.9%bearish
50.4%49.6%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:51.1%14.4%
was cash:37.5%0%
was stocks:18%16.5%
was stocks:54.2%8.3%

69%31%bearish
91.7%8.3%bearish


Thursday, July 2, 2020

I am Not Expecting Much Change In Energy.

The models disagree with each other, and the differential between cash/stock is high in both.

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocksXOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.8%0%was cash:66.2%0%
was stocks:22.7%55.4%was stocks:33.8%0%
44.6%55.4%bullish100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocksXLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:36.7%0%was cash:69.7%12.9%
was stocks:0%63.3%was stocks:0%17.4%
36.7%63.3%bullish69.7%30.3%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocksOIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.6%0%was cash:88%12%
was stocks:0%82.4%was stocks:0%0%
17.6%82.4%bullish88%12%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocksXES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:40.5%0%was cash:60.8%12.4%
was stocks:0%59.5%was stocks:26.8%0%
40.5%59.5%bullish87.6%12.4%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocksIYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:20.4%0%was cash:86.3%13.7%
was stocks:0%79.6%was stocks:0%0%
20.4%79.6%bullish86.3%13.7%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocksFXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.1%0%was cash:81%0%
was stocks:0%61.9%was stocks:19%0%
38.1%61.9%bullish100%0%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocksIXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.7%0%was cash:71%29%
was stocks:0%65.3%was stocks:0%0%
34.7%65.3%bullish71%29%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocksVDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.3%0%was cash:87.2%12.8%
was stocks:0%78.7%was stocks:0%0%
21.3%78.7%bullish87.2%12.8%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocksFENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:21%0%was cash:39%43.7%
was stocks:0%79%was stocks:0%17.3%
21%79%bullish39%61%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocksFCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:35.3%0%was cash:73.9%0%
was stocks:19.7%45%was stocks:8.9%17.2%
55%45%bearish82.8%17.2%bearish



Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Bearish On Energy


For the bullish calls - the differentials are marginal at best.


Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:42.2%22.5%
was cash:30.7%0%
was stocks:22.1%13.2%
was stocks:69.3%0%
64.3%35.7%bearish100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:48.1%0%
was cash:60.8%39.2%
was stocks:0%51.9%
was stocks:0%0%
48.1%51.9%bullish60.8%39.2%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:21.9%21%
was cash:83.7%0%
was stocks:17.1%40.1%
was stocks:16.3%0%
39%61%bullish100%0%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:75.8%12.4%
was cash:33%21.2%
was stocks:0%11.8%
was stocks:45.7%0%
75.8%24.2%bearish78.8%21.2%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:37.1%0%
was cash:53.1%23.1%
was stocks:0%62.9%
was stocks:0%23.8%
37.1%62.9%bullish53.1%46.9%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:68.8%31.2%
was cash:47.7%16.8%
was stocks:0%0%
was stocks:35.6%0%
68.8%31.2%bearish83.2%16.8%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:66.9%0%
was cash:71.2%9.5%
was stocks:0%33.1%
was stocks:19.3%0%
66.9%33.1%bearish90.5%9.5%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:52.8%0%
was cash:57.6%0%
was stocks:0%47.2%
was stocks:0%42.4%
52.8%47.2%bearish57.6%42.4%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:53%0%
was cash:29.2%25.2%
was stocks:0%47%
was stocks:23.6%22%
53%47%bearish52.8%47.2%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:36.4%0%
was cash:37.8%15.7%
was stocks:16.9%46.7%
was stocks:37.2%9.2%
53.3%46.7%bearish75%25%bearish


The 30 trading day outlook has some recovery towards the end of the period.
$XOP
$IXC

Saturday, June 13, 2020

A Lot More Bear Calls For Energy


Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:41.5%24.3%
was cash:100%0%
was stocks:21.7%12.4%
was stocks:0%0%

63.2%36.8%bearish
100%0%bearish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:11.4%0%
was cash:63.9%0%
was stocks:26.6%62%
was stocks:36.1%0%

38%62%bullish
100%0%bearish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:40%0%
was cash:65.2%0%
was stocks:32.1%27.9%
was stocks:20.1%14.7%

72.1%27.9%bearish
85.3%14.7%bearish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:25.9%23%
was cash:53.4%0%
was stocks:51.2%0%
was stocks:25%21.6%

77%23%bearish
78.4%21.6%bearish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:27.7%12.8%
was cash:22.2%8.8%
was stocks:0%59.5%
was stocks:33.8%35.2%

27.7%72.3%bullish
56%44%bearish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:80.8%0%
was cash:51.5%12.7%
was stocks:19.2%0%
was stocks:35.8%0%

100%0%bearish
87.3%12.7%bearish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%0%
was cash:47.2%0%
was stocks:32.6%67.4%
was stocks:36%16.7%

32.6%67.4%bullish
83.3%16.7%bearish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:29.8%0%
was cash:48.4%0%
was stocks:0%70.2%
was stocks:31.1%20.5%

29.8%70.2%bullish
79.5%20.5%bearish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:43.5%0%
was cash:54.4%0%
was stocks:0%56.5%
was stocks:21.9%23.7%

43.5%56.5%bullish
76.3%23.7%bearish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:13%54.7%
was cash:36%14%
was stocks:0%32.3%
was stocks:41%9.1%

13%87%bullish
77%23%bearish

From my 30 day out-look some confirmation has Energy with oranges and yellows for the next two weeks.  Reds, oranges and yellows indicate selling situations.

Sectors - As Of June 12
You can get a copy of this report from http://mcverryreport.com follow the links to download The Short Term Trader Report.

Monday, June 1, 2020

18 Out Of 20 Energy Related Models are Bullish, Service Related Showing Sell Signs


$XOP 30 Days Outlook
$OIH  30 Day Outlook

Monte CarloQlearning
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
XOP
SPDR Oil & Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:11.4%20.1%
was cash:0%26.2%
was stocks:30.9%37.6%
was stocks:18.4%55.4%
42.3%57.7%bullish 18.4%81.6%bullish
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
XLE
Energy Select Sector
to cashto stocks
was cash:28.4%16.5%
was cash:0%34.3%
was stocks:12.5%42.6%
was stocks:16.2%49.5%
40.9%59.1%bullish 16.2%83.8%bullish
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
OIH
VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.
to cashto stocks
was cash:39.2%0%
was cash:0%6.2%
was stocks:0%60.8%
was stocks:44.9%48.9%
39.2%60.8%bullish 44.9%55.1%bullish
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
XES
SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs
to cashto stocks
was cash:55.5%31.4%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:0%13.1%
was stocks:30.8%69.2%
55.5%44.5%bearish 30.8%69.2%bullish
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
IYE
iShares U.S. Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.4%17%
was cash:10%36%
was stocks:14.5%51.1%
was stocks:36.7%17.4%
31.9%68.1%bullish 46.7%53.3%bullish
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
FXN
First Trust Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.3%12.3%
was cash:9.5%39%
was stocks:0%49.4%
was stocks:18.7%32.8%
38.3%61.7%bullish 28.2%71.8%bullish
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
IXC
iShares Global Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:54%32.2%
was cash:0%46.7%
was stocks:13.8%0%
was stocks:34.1%19.3%
67.8%32.2%bearish 34.1%65.9%bullish
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
VDE
Vanguard Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:30.4%33.3%
was cash:9.9%21.9%
was stocks:0%36.3%
was stocks:13.6%54.6%
30.4%69.6%bullish 23.5%76.5%bullish
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
FENY
Fid. MSCI Energy
to cashto stocks
was cash:31.1%32%
was cash:0%16.6%
was stocks:0%36.9%
was stocks:26.9%56.5%
31.1%68.9%bullish 26.9%73.1%bullish
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
FCG
First Trust Natural Gas
to cashto stocks
was cash:30.3%19.4%
was cash:21.3%17.4%
was stocks:18.9%31.4%
was stocks:41.5%19.8%
49.2%50.8%bullish 62.9%37.1%bearish