Models Turning To The Buy Side for Energy ETFs

Compared to the calls from past weeks, the models are getting more bullish. Still, it's about 50-50 between bull-bear signals; even the cash-stock differentials are substantial both ways. I'll remain on the sidelines to wait for a more specific call

 

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
XOP SPDR Oil & Gas	to cash	to stocks		XOP SPDR Oil & Gas	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	15.5%	0%		was cash:	59%	41%
was stocks:	0%	84.5%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	15.5%	84.5%	bullish		59%	41%	bearish
XLE Energy Select Sector	to cash	to stocks		XLE Energy Select Sector	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	33.4%	16.7%		was cash:	69.4%	30.6%
was stocks:	0%	49.9%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	33.4%	66.6%	bullish		69.4%	30.6%	bearish
OIH VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.	to cash	to stocks		OIH VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	34.5%	0%		was cash:	75.9%	16.2%
was stocks:	0%	65.5%		was stocks:	7.9%	0%
	34.5%	65.5%	bullish		83.8%	16.2%	bearish
XES SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs	to cash	to stocks		XES SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	35.3%	0%		was cash:	33.2%	47.2%
was stocks:	19.1%	45.6%		was stocks:	9%	10.6%
	54.4%	45.6%	bearish		42.2%	57.8%	bullish
IYE iShares U.S. Energy	to cash	to stocks		IYE iShares U.S. Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	15.4%	0%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	0%	84.6%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	15.4%	84.6%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
FXN First Trust Energy	to cash	to stocks		FXN First Trust Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	32.9%	13.3%		was cash:	58.5%	34.2%
was stocks:	0%	53.7%		was stocks:	7.3%	0%
	32.9%	67.1%	bullish		65.8%	34.2%	bearish
IXC iShares Global Energy	to cash	to stocks		IXC iShares Global Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	49.8%	0%		was cash:	85.1%	14.9%
was stocks:	0%	50.2%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	49.8%	50.2%	bullish		85.1%	14.9%	bearish
VDE Vanguard Energy	to cash	to stocks		VDE Vanguard Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	15.5%	0%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	0%	84.5%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	15.5%	84.5%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
FENY Fid. MSCI Energy	to cash	to stocks		FENY Fid. MSCI Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	15.8%	0%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	0%	84.2%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	15.8%	84.2%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
FCG First Trust Natural Gas	to cash	to stocks		FCG First Trust Natural Gas	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	15.9%	0%		was cash:	78%	17.5%
was stocks:	0%	84.1%		was stocks:	4.5%	0%
	15.9%	84.1%	bullish		82.5%	17.5%	bearish

 

A Lot More Bear Calls For Energy

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
XOP SPDR Oil & Gas	to cash	to stocks		XOP SPDR Oil & Gas	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	41.5%	24.3%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	21.7%	12.4%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	63.2%	36.8%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
XLE Energy Select Sector	to cash	to stocks		XLE Energy Select Sector	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	11.4%	0%		was cash:	63.9%	0%
was stocks:	26.6%	62%		was stocks:	36.1%	0%
	38%	62%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
OIH VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.	to cash	to stocks		OIH VanEck Vect. Oil Svcs.	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	40%	0%		was cash:	65.2%	0%
was stocks:	32.1%	27.9%		was stocks:	20.1%	14.7%
	72.1%	27.9%	bearish		85.3%	14.7%	bearish
XES SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs	to cash	to stocks		XES SPDR Oil & Gas En&Svcs	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	25.9%	23%		was cash:	53.4%	0%
was stocks:	51.2%	0%		was stocks:	25%	21.6%
	77%	23%	bearish		78.4%	21.6%	bearish
IYE iShares U.S. Energy	to cash	to stocks		IYE iShares U.S. Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	27.7%	12.8%		was cash:	22.2%	8.8%
was stocks:	0%	59.5%		was stocks:	33.8%	35.2%
	27.7%	72.3%	bullish		56%	44%	bearish
FXN First Trust Energy	to cash	to stocks		FXN First Trust Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	80.8%	0%		was cash:	51.5%	12.7%
was stocks:	19.2%	0%		was stocks:	35.8%	0%
	100%	0%	bearish		87.3%	12.7%	bearish
IXC iShares Global Energy	to cash	to stocks		IXC iShares Global Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	0%	0%		was cash:	47.2%	0%
was stocks:	32.6%	67.4%		was stocks:	36%	16.7%
	32.6%	67.4%	bullish		83.3%	16.7%	bearish
VDE Vanguard Energy	to cash	to stocks		VDE Vanguard Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	29.8%	0%		was cash:	48.4%	0%
was stocks:	0%	70.2%		was stocks:	31.1%	20.5%
	29.8%	70.2%	bullish		79.5%	20.5%	bearish
FENY Fid. MSCI Energy	to cash	to stocks		FENY Fid. MSCI Energy	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	43.5%	0%		was cash:	54.4%	0%
was stocks:	0%	56.5%		was stocks:	21.9%	23.7%
	43.5%	56.5%	bullish		76.3%	23.7%	bearish
FCG First Trust Natural Gas	to cash	to stocks		FCG First Trust Natural Gas	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	13%	54.7%		was cash:	36%	14%
was stocks:	0%	32.3%		was stocks:	41%	9.1%
	13%	87%	bullish		77%	23%	bearish

From my 30 day out-look some confirmation has Energy with oranges and yellows for the next two weeks.  Reds, oranges and yellows indicate selling situations.

You can get a copy of this report from http://mcverryreport.com follow the links to download The Short Term Trader Report.

Top 10 / Bottom 10 Picks For Leveraged ETFs Over the Next 10 Market Days

Biotech moving to the top of the top 10 list (and bottom of bottom 10)

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
UBIO	2.62
LABU	2.59
GUSH	2.41
BIB	2.4
CURE	2.4
DUG	2.36
ERY	2.35
FAS	2.35
DUST	2.24
INDL	2.23
Negative (short)
SPXS	0.59
VIXY	0.58
TECS	0.57
VIXM	0.57
SDOW	0.56
BZQ	0.54
FAZ	0.53
SKF	0.52
BIS	0.5
TVIZ	0.47

Last week so far.  There's biotech in the middle sucking wind.

Positives (long)
SOXL	2.42	7.33%
DGAZ	2.4	4.38%
NUGT	2.4	1.49%
GASX	2.28	5.14%
LABU	2.24	-4.01%
UBIO	2.2	-8.16%
BIB	2.09	-5.28%
TECL	2.07	6.17%
KOLD	2.01	3.46%
FAS	2	-2.34%
Average		0.82%
Negative (short)
PSQ	0.41	-1.09%
SPXS	0.41	1.35%
VIXM	0.41	-1.42%
TECS	0.4	-6.04%
VIXY	0.38	-1.68%
SKF	0.36	1.99%
SDOW	0.35	1.86%
TVIZ	0.35	-3.19%
FAZ	0.3	2.19%
SOXS	0.28	-7.39%
Average		-1.34%

With the exception of biotech and Russia, the picks did well from 2 weeks ago.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
DGAZ	3.01	2.92%
SOXL	2.7	2.49%
GASX	2.65	2.05%
RUSL	2.53	-1.63%
YINN	2.53	0.82%
MORL	2.51	3.24%
KOLD	2.47	2.65%
BIB	2.4	-5.40%
DGLD	2.37	4.71%
DRN	2.37	12.45%
Average		2.43%
Negative (short)
DXD	0.63	3.41%
FAZ	0.63	3.50%
VIXY	0.61	-3.36%
VIXM	0.6	-2.15%
SQQQ	0.59	-1.72%
SOXS	0.55	-3.65%
SDOW	0.48	5.16%
TVIZ	0.44	-5.14%
TECS	0.36	-3.35%
YANG	0.31	-0.76%
Average		-0.81%

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A.I. Performace Estimates for Leveraged ETFs In 2 Weeks Time

This week's call looks a lot like last week's call which looks a lot like the previous week's call

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
RUSL	2.7
BRZU	2.62
DTO	2.56
SCO	2.5
KOLD	2.33
TQQQ	2.33
FAS	2.32
DUG	2.31
DGAZ	2.3
INDL	2.25
Negative (short)
SKF	0.54
SPXS	0.53
SOXS	0.52
VIXY	0.51
PSQ	0.5
SPXU	0.49
VIXM	0.48
TVIZ	0.4
FAZ	0.38
TECS	0.36

Last week's long call is holding up,  The short call not so much.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positives (long)
DGAZ	2.65	6.27%
ERY	2.53	4.24%
BRZU	2.48	-9.35%
RUSL	2.42	-9.48%
DUG	2.34	2.75%
LABD	2.32	9.66%
KOLD	2.31	4.40%
JNUG	2.2	-3.40%
ULE	2.12	-0.44%
INDL	2.11	-4.34%
Average		0.03%
Negative (short)
VIXY	0.69	2.20%
ERX	0.67	-4.20%
SDOW	0.66	4.31%
SPXS	0.66	3.93%
TVIZ	0.64	2.48%
PSQ	0.62	1.31%
SH	0.62	1.27%
SKF	0.62	3.09%
SPXU	0.58	3.97%
FAZ	0.52	4.16%
Average		2.25%

The call from 2 weeks ago isn't too bad overall,  sure missed the first 4 long calls.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
RUSL	3.15	-9.08%
BRZU	2.99	-5.35%
DGAZ	2.79	-1.09%
NUGT	2.68	-0.84%
EURL	2.66	4.42%
LABU	2.63	5.22%
SOXL	2.46	11.66%
UYG	2.46	3.35%
UBIO	2.4	7.56%
EDC	2.38	7.06%
Average		2.29%
Negative (short)
DXD	0.56	-1.47%
QID	0.56	-5.32%
SOXS	0.56	-11.32%
YANG	0.56	-10.47%
VIXM	0.48	-2.15%
SPXS	0.46	-4.94%
SPXU	0.45	-4.82%
SDOW	0.41	-2.24%
VIXY	0.29	-8.88%
TVIZ	0.28	-4.61%
Average		-5.62%

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Several Foreign-related Leveraged ETFs Still In The Top 10. The AI Models Like Markets In General Over The Next 2 Weeks.

Top and Bottom 10 Picks Over The Next 2 Weeks. 

 Note that in the shorts there are several inverse   leveraged ETFs.

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
DGAZ	2.65
ERY	2.53
BRZU	2.48
RUSL	2.42
DUG	2.34
LABD	2.32
KOLD	2.31
JNUG	2.2
ULE	2.12
INDL	2.11
Negative (short)
VIXY	0.69
ERX	0.67
SDOW	0.66
SPXS	0.66
TVIZ	0.64
PSQ	0.62
SH	0.62
SKF	0.62
SPXU	0.58
FAZ	0.52

Last week so far so good.  The top 3 are negative but since they appear in the above list they may prove correct.  The short side is batting 100%.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positives (long)
RUSL	3.15	-1.96%
BRZU	2.99	-1.71%
DGAZ	2.79	-3.82%
NUGT	2.68	0.09%
EURL	2.66	5.23%
LABU	2.63	10.09%
SOXL	2.46	10.56%
UYG	2.46	4.94%
UBIO	2.4	8.57%
EDC	2.38	6.67%
Average		3.87%
Negative (short)
DXD	0.56	-3.41%
QID	0.56	-5.29%
SOXS	0.56	-9.86%
YANG	0.56	-6.72%
VIXM	0.48	-2.55%
SPXS	0.46	-6.12%
SPXU	0.45	-6.09%
SDOW	0.41	-5.01%
VIXY	0.29	-10.10%
TVIZ	0.28	-5.32%
Average		-6.05%

What was called 2 weeks ago. Still not good but better than last week's results.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
UBIO	2.80	4.18%
BIB	2.63	3.14%
DTO	2.53	7.18%
RUSL	2.50	-10.96%
BRZU	2.48	-9.00%
DGAZ	2.41	-8.52%
INDL	2.40	-10.76%
LABU	2.40	7.79%
SOXL	2.38	10.13%
CURE	2.36	-1.79%
Average		-0.86%
Negative (short)
VIXM	0.92	5.05%
BIS	0.91	-3.47%
DOG	0.89	1.81%
DXD	0.89	3.56%
ERX	0.89	-6.52%
TVIZ	0.89	9.09%
SOXS	0.86	-10.37%
PSQ	0.82	-0.85%
SDOW	0.77	5.33%
FAZ	0.69	-0.56%
Average		0.31%

Speaking of last week's results ...

Since the models look ahead 2 weeks I usually don't post results after 3 weeks.  But the call from 3 weeks ago actually turned out pretty good.  Even though the after 2 weeks it was horrible.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 15 Day % Change
Positives (long)
LABU	2.76	12.03%
BIB	2.6	5.53%
BRZU	2.59	-1.60%
UBIO	2.48	7.82%
UST	2.41	0.30%
YCS	2.41	-0.65%
DTO	2.38	-0.11%
RUSL	2.33	0.52%
TMF	2.32	-0.21%
CURE	2.25	1.33%
Average		2.50%
Negative (short)
FAZ	0.41	-3.91%
VIXY	0.41	-4.78%
SPXS	0.4	-3.52%
DOG	0.39	0.10%
SOXS	0.39	-17.74%
SDOW	0.39	-0.15%
SH	0.39	-1.02%
BIS	0.38	-5.80%
TVIZ	0.39	0.71%
VIXM	0.37	0.68%
Average		-3.54%

This Week's Top/Bottom 10 Almost The Same As Last Week's; Call From 2 Weeks Ago ... Outstanding.

A bunch of bio tech leveraged ETFs in the top 10 along with some internationals

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
UBIO	2.8
BIB	2.63
DTO	2.53
RUSL	2.5
BRZU	2.48
DGAZ	2.41
INDL	2.4
LABU	2.4
SOXL	2.38
CURE	2.36
Negative (short)
VIXM	0.92
BIS	0.91
DOG	0.89
DXD	0.89
ERX	0.89
TVIZ	0.89
SOXS	0.86
PSQ	0.82
SDOW	0.77
FAZ	0.69

Last week's call not so great but it has another week to go.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positives (long)
LABU	2.76	0.67%
BIB	2.60	-0.46%
BRZU	2.59	5.25%
UBIO	2.48	-0.65%
UST	2.41	-0.07%
YCS	2.41	-0.23%
DTO	2.38	-4.00%
RUSL	2.33	8.77%
TMF	2.32	-2.15%
CURE	2.25	-1.08%
Average		0.61%
Negative (short)
FAZ	0.41	0.70%
VIXY	0.41	-2.16%
SPXS	0.40	-0.18%
DOG	0.39	-0.24%
SOXS	0.39	-1.84%
SDOW	0.39	-0.75%
SH	0.39	-0.07%
BIS	0.38	0.47%
TVIZ	0.39	-2.23%
VIXM	0.37	-1.13%
Average		-0.74%

10% & 14% over 2 weeks ... wow.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
SVXY	3.08	12.46%
EURL	2.73	6.46%
TQQQ	2.67	16.34%
MIDU	2.66	10.26%
JNUG	2.58	3.32%
TECL	2.57	15.26%
CURE	2.53	7.20%
QLD	2.52	10.76%
SOXL	2.49	15.74%
DRN	2.47	-1.86%
Average		9.59%
Negative (short)
SKF	0.35	-5.96%
VIXY	0.35	-12.36%
SPXS	0.34	-8.87%
SQQQ	0.33	-14.88%
FAZ	0.32	-9.14%
TECS	0.3	-14.18%
TVIX	0.3	-23.84%
YANG	0.3	-16.94%
TVIZ	0.26	-8.57%
UVXY	0.18	-24.81%
Average		-13.96%

As With The Markets The Models Recover From The Sell Off At The End of January.

In the Top 10 Biotechs have the strongest buy signal for the next 2 weeks.

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
LABU	2.76
BIB	2.6
BRZU	2.59
UBIO	2.48
UST	2.41
YCS	2.41
DTO	2.38
RUSL	2.33
TMF	2.32
CURE	2.25
Negative (short)
FAZ	0.41
VIXY	0.41
SPXS	0.4
DOG	0.39
SOXS	0.39
SDOW	0.39
SH	0.39
BIS	0.38
TVIZ	0.39
VIXM	0.37

Last week's numbers are looking really good.  So far....

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positives (long)
SVXY	3.08	15.32%
EURL	2.73	9.48%
TQQQ	2.67	15.17%
MIDU	2.66	11.96%
JNUG	2.58	17.76%
TECL	2.57	14.83%
CURE	2.53	9.78%
QLD	2.52	10.03%
SOXL	2.49	12.69%
DRN	2.47	3.43%
Average		12.05%
Negative (short)
SKF	0.35	-7.23%
VIXY	0.35	-14.56%
SPXS	0.34	-10.34%
SQQQ	0.33	-13.94%
FAZ	0.32	-10.54%
TECS	0.30	-13.57%
TVIX	0.30	-27.54%
YANG	0.30	-17.58%
TVIZ	0.26	-9.82%
UVXY	0.18	-28.47%
Average		-15.36%

The results' from 2 weeks ago are good.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
GUSH	3.22	-9.70%
RUSL	2.8	4.98%
DRN	2.68	-5.40%
MIDU	2.64	0.90%
BRZU	2.62	5.65%
MORL	2.56	8.28%
FAS	2.53	1.24%
URE	2.49	-2.61%
JNUG	2.44	5.95%
RETL	2.43	8.44%
Average		1.77%
Negative (short)
MIDZ	0.51	-3.25%
SPXU	0.5	-4.21%
YANG	0.47	5.80%
SDOW	0.46	-4.98%
TVIZ	0.43	6.48%
FAZ	0.41	-4.87%
TECS	0.36	-9.27%
UVXY	0.32	-11.84%
TVIX	0.31	-20.90%
VIXY	0.3	9.08%
Average		-3.80%

It's Obvious That The Models CAN'T Predict Changes In Market Trends.

Looking out 2 weeks.

Sym	Scale 4-0
Positives (long)
SVXY	3.08
EURL	2.73
TQQQ	2.67
MIDU	2.66
JNUG	2.58
TECL	2.57
CURE	2.53
QLD	2.52
SOXL	2.49
DRN	2.47
Negative (short)
SKF	0.35
VIXY	0.35
SPXS	0.34
SQQQ	0.33
FAZ	0.32
TECS	0.3
TVIX	0.3
YANG	0.3
TVIZ	0.26
UVXY	0.18

Last Week's 2 Week Call So Far.

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 5 Day % Change
Positives (long)
GUSH	3.22	-21.63%
RUSL	2.80	-14.12%
DRN	2.68	-10.89%
MIDU	2.64	-11.66%
BRZU	2.62	-11.86%
MORL	2.56	0.15%
FAS	2.53	-11.68%
URE	2.49	-7.25%
JNUG	2.44	-12.52%
RETL	2.43	-2.11%
Average		-10.36%
Negative (short)
MIDZ	0.51	9.92%
SPXU	0.50	10.27%
YANG	0.47	27.65%
SDOW	0.46	9.10%
TVIZ	0.43	25.22%
FAZ	0.41	10.63%
TECS	0.36	9.92%
UVXY	0.32	39.91%
TVIX	0.31	23.38%
VIXY	0.30	36.69%
Average		20.27%

2 Weeks Ago.

Good Call For $DGAZ.
Too bad the other calls were so wrong,

Sym	Scale 4-0	Last 10 Day % Change
Positives (long)
DGAZ	3.78	60.49%
KOLD	3.36	37.79%
MORL	2.77	-11.07%
SVXY	2.67	-91.20%
DDM	2.64	-16.35%
DRN	2.64	-20.23%
UDOW	2.64	-24.07%
YINN	2.58	-34.03%
TMF	2.55	-10.63%
UST	2.47	-2.35%
Average		-11.17%
Negative (short)
DXD	0.93	17.25%
GASL	0.86	-39.37%
SDOW	0.84	26.38%
TVIZ	0.79	46.76%
UBIO	0.78	-27.54%
VIXM	0.65	25.14%
VIXY	0.63	74.00%
UGAZ	0.5	-41.98%
UVXY	0.41	119.20%
TVIX	0.1	94.27%
Average		29.41%

4

Top 10 L.ETFs With Highest Estimated Confidence of A Positive Move Over The Next 10 Market Days

Sym	MA	%	BB	%	MACD	%	Aroon	%	Slope	%	LR	%	Mom	%	TSF	%	BOC	%
BDCL	Buy	54.29%	Sell	48.09%	Sell	42.86%	Buy	51.76%	Buy	59.26%	Buy	63.89%	Buy	60.71%	Buy	61.05%	Buy	100.00%
CURE	Buy	56.20%	Buy	55.74%	Sell	45.83%	Buy	61.22%	Sell	47.50%	Sell	45.45%	Buy	51.72%	Buy	56.76%	Buy	100.00%
ERX	Buy	50.96%	Buy	59.09%	Sell	48.51%	Sell	42.55%	Buy	52.00%	?	?	Sell	48.63%	Buy	62.50%	Buy	100.00%
EUO	Buy	55.56%	Sell	40.57%	Buy	52.08%	Buy	52.63%	Buy	60.00%	Buy	52.17%	Buy	63.04%	Buy	60.87%	Buy	100.00%
EURL	Sell	49.30%	Sell	48.13%	Buy	56.25%	Buy	68.12%	Buy	58.24%	Buy	61.11%	Buy	57.20%	Buy	54.55%	Buy	100.00%
LBJ	Buy	52.13%	Sell	48.41%	Buy	57.58%	Buy	57.58%	Buy	57.32%	?	?	Buy	52.22%	Buy	52.17%	Buy	100.00%
DGAZ	Buy	66.67%	Buy	58.67%	Buy	52.31%	Buy	73.08%	Buy	57.69%	Buy	53.94%	Buy	53.12%	Buy	53.23%	Buy	91.89%
TMF	Buy	53.69%	Buy	53.81%	Sell	41.18%	Buy	58.73%	Buy	54.04%	Buy	62.50%	Buy	56.50%	Buy	87.50%	Buy	80.00%
UBIO	Sell	44.54%	Buy	50.89%	Buy	51.65%	Buy	56.00%	Sell	46.34%	Buy	54.74%	Sell	34.04%	Buy	66.67%	Buy	80.00%
UDOW	Buy	67.13%	Buy	60.00%	Buy	60.16%	Buy	59.26%	Buy	60.00%	Buy	67.12%	Buy	62.17%	Buy	57.14%	Buy	77.08%